Putin’s departure

Not that long ago, talking openly about president Putin’s possible resignation could cost a politician their career. When, in autumn 2018, senior member of the United Russia party , Assistant Secretary to the party’s Supreme Council, reporting to Secretary Andrey Turchak, × and former television presenter, Evgeny Revenko, dared make an implicit comment that after 2024 Russia would have a new president, the ruling party expressed its outrage and reprimanded Revenko , “They explained that his remarks were out of line with United Russia’s views and urged him to refrain from making any further impetuous public statements, especially if they explicitly contradict the party line” — a United Russia source told TV Rain, the television channel that had reported Revenko’s original comments × , and later stripped him of almost all authority  — there had been plans for his resignation, but for now there has been a restriction of his access to the media × .

The situation had changed dramatically by the autumn of 2019, when, in informal conversations with The Project’s reporters, government officials would openly say that Putin was not going to run for a fifth presidential term  — that would have required a removal of the constitutional restriction on the time he could spend in power × , and that the Kremlin was working on other options for his engagement after 2024. “There is no doubt that Vladimir Putin will step down after 2024. He clearly demonstrated that ability in 2008 , that was when he left his presidential post for four years × ” — a senior government official told our reporter in September 2019.

There was a reason for the change of mood between those two events: in that period, the president would often tell those around him that he was tired, and he gradually started issuing instructions to government officials to arrange his departure , according to a source acquainted with the president and a Kremlin interviewee × . It is not clear when Putin started discussing his new role, or with whom. In late 2018, however, during a parliamentary meeting with the president, the spokesman for the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, suggested changing the constitution, and a month later  — broadening parliament’s powers. He did so at the request of the country’s leadership, in order to influence public sentiment towards the legislative changes , according to The Project’s sources at the Duma; and one Kremlin source points to the specific individual who had requested Volodin to put forward the proposals — head of the Presidential Administration, Anton Vaino × . It should be noted that at that point in time it had not yet been decided what specific amendments should be made to the constitution , according to our Kremlin source × .

Putin’s arrival

On 14 January, on the eve of the presidential address to the Federal Assembly, Vaino gathered together the editors-in-chief of major Russian media outlets , according to two individuals familiar with the content of that meeting × . This was a long-established event during which media executives would usually be briefed as to the content of Putin’s forthcoming speech, thus allowing them to plan for their coverage of it. However, on that occasion editors-in-chief were only informed of the part of the speech relating to social care, where the president spoke of maternity capital and investment in healthcare. The content of the second part of the speech, in which Putin put forward proposals for constitutional amendments, were kept secret. According to The Project’s Kremlin source, it had been seen only by a chosen few: the president himself, Vaino, his first deputies Kirienko and Alexey Gromov, and head of the Presidential State-Legal Directorate, Dmitry Kalimulin, who drafted the speech.

Why the amendments are required now

It was important for Putin to pave the way to his future role while his popularity levels were high and while he was still able to set his new political system in motion independently , argues a source who regularly participates in meetings with the leadership of the Kremlin administration × . But he has nothing to gain from disclosing the details of his chosen option; perpetual secrecy allows him to maintain control over the situation, not least by keeping a close eye on his inner circle , thinks a former federal official × .

Successor’s departure

Having created an air of ambiguity around his future role, the president also perplexed his circles as to another matter of great interest — his future successor. Almost immediately after reading out his address in parliament, he held a one-to-one meeting with prime minister Medvedev, whom many had automatically presumed to be the main presidential contender.

Putin and Medvedev did not divulge the content of their meeting to third parties, but those sources from the Kremlin and the United Russia party who told The Project of the fact that the meeting took place, are convinced that this was the moment Putin told Medvedev to resign . However, our source acquainted with the prime minister does not believe this, instead suggesting that Medvedev had known everything in advance × . When approached with a request for his views, a former senior official closely acquainted with both Putin and Medvedev smiled: “It was not Dmitry Medvedev’s decision to leave. Rather, it was Vladimir Putin’s wish.” There was many a reason to justify such a wish.

Back in May 2018, Kremlin officials, shortly after securing a triumphant victory for Putin’s fourth term in office, were faced with an unexpected development — Putin’s popularity ratings suddenly started to fall. Pollsters who track public opinion on the Kremlin’s behalf managed to trace the moment of that change — it coincided with Medvedev’s re-election as prime minister and the effective retention of his government. Since then, public confidence in all branches of government has been falling, with the prime minister spearheading that decline, especially after his government shouldered responsibility for raising the pension age. In the end, public confidence in Medvedev reached a low of 7% . This would not have been so problematic were it not for the fact that the pension reforms and the government dragged Putin’s popularity down too , his public approval ratings fell sharply in summer 2018 and have failed to recover to the triumphant levels of 2014-2018 × .

Moreover, Medvedev was leader of the United Russia party and he was to take the ruling party through to the State Duma election in 2021. According to several Kremlin meeting participants, during that period they started voicing their concerns to the leadership of the presidential administration: at this rate, United Russia will fail to get a majority in parliamentary elections.

Meanwhile, Medvedev’s behaviour started giving cause for concern over his performance. In private meetings, he would shun discussions of pressing issues, says a regular government meeting attendee. Here is his account of events:

– First deputy prime minister Anton Siluanov and deputy prime minister for social policy Tatyana Golikova would periodically argue over budget expenditure. But instead of trying to settle their arguments, Medvedev asked them to resolve their disputes amongst themselves first, and then report to him with a concrete decision.

A friend of one prominent minister confirms this: members of parliament could not rely on Medvedev’s assistance and had to wait for an audience with Putin in order to resolve many issues of considerable importance.

As a result, by the autumn of last year there was talk in government, the Kremlin and State Duma, that change was afoot in the Russian White House. At that stage, no-one was anticipating resignation of the entire cabinet, but there was already an announcement about the dismissal of three ministers — for health, sport and digital development . The Project reported on this in October × .

As ever, Putin chose a most unexpected moment for Medvedev’s resignation. In late December the prime minister expressed his best wishes to members of the government apparatus for the New Year and talked at length about his future plans. Government officials therefore concluded that the prime minister was here to stay. Many were gobsmacked when they learned of his resignation . “That announcement was news to me” — Dmitry Medvedev’s press secretary Oleg Osipov told The Project × .

Battle of successors

Mishustin took a few days to form his government, with White House halls echoing the words ‘destruction’ and ‘takeover’. The new prime minister had arrived armed with his own team and a firm intention to get rid of a significant proportion of the old line-up.

Senior officials were pushed out fast — time-honoured deputy chief of staff Andrey Loginov, for example, was given just two hours to clear his desk. “Nobody rushed us”, — Loginov told The Project. But three other White House interviewees told us that almost all chiefs of staff were expelled from their offices. Ousted ministers were stripped of their perks such as cars and, for the first time in a long while, had no choice but to go home in taxis , according to The Project’s White House sources × .

In place of the ousted apparatchiks, Mishustin appointed tried and trusted people who would first and foremost focus on taking care of his public image. Thus, one deputy chief of staff he appointed was Leonid Levin. Levin had previously been head of the Duma’s media relations committee but, more importantly, is the creator of the Privy Councillor PR agency which had looked after Mishustin’s image as head of the Federal Tax Service and worked on his public speeches , according to one White House source × .

Mishustin is obsessively meticulous when it comes to his media image , as described to us by his friend and confirmed by a White House source × . Some say that his mentor on these issues was the mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin. One unverified story circulating amongst Yandex employees is that in the mid-2010s Sobyanin and Mishustin were in a sauna when the mayor of the capital explained to the chief taxman that he needed to use the Yandex search engine to monitor any compromising coverage and have it deleted as necessary . That story was recounted to us by a Yandex employee × . Ever since then, Mishustin has had a whole team of staff monitoring online reports for any negative coverage . The prime minister’s press secretary did not respond to The Project’s questions × .

Both Mishustin and Sobyanin have achieved very strong representation in the new cabinet: